有一个中文说法，精准地概括了一种常见的政治幻象,即国进民退。国家看似不断强化，而普通民众的生活却在不断萎缩。国家显得更强大、更高调、更雄心勃勃，但同时普通人却感到生活愈发昂贵，不安和倒退。
There is a Chinese phrase that captures a familiar political illusion: 国进民退 — the state advances while the people retreat. The country appears stronger, louder, more ambitious. Yet ordinary lives grow more precarious, more expensive, more fragile.
长期以来，美国人一直认为这种现象是威权体制的病灶，而不可能发生在民主社会中。然而在唐纳德·特朗普治下的美国，这种令人不安现象却逐渐明显。
For a long time, Americans believed this was a pathology of authoritarian systems, not democracies. But under Donald Trump, the United States is beginning to look uncomfortably similar.
今天的美国的行为举止愈发向帝国靠近，但普通家庭所感受到的，却是不断下滑的经济现实。
America today talks like an empire — but feels like a declining household economy.
在国际舞台上，美国毫不掩饰地挥舞着权力的指挥棒，频频以胁迫手段示人，甚至不时流露出吞并他国的野心。它将盟友视为附庸，把整个西半球当作可以分配的势力范围。在这种世界观中，强势不再需要被分享或加以合法化，而只是被不断展示、反复施展；在这种逻辑下，权力可以在几乎毫无约束与制衡的情况下被施展，被滥用。
On the world stage, the language of power is unmistakable. Trump boasts openly of coercion, flirts with annexation fantasies, treats allies as dependents, and speaks of hemispheres as if they were spoils. Strength, in this worldview, is not something to be shared or legitimized but asserted and demonstrated. Power is its own justification.
而在美国境内则完全是另一番场景。
At home, however, the story is starkly different.
根据《纽约时报》与锡耶纳学院（Siena College）最近联合进行的一项民调，近一半的登记选民认为，与一年前相比，美国如今的状况更糟。只有 32% 的受访者认为状况有所改善。多数人51%受访者表示生活愈发难以负担，而 64% 的受访者认为在普通民众生活支出问题上，特朗普政策失误。而在政党独立的选民中，不满情绪尤为明显，超过四成的人认为特朗普正走在在美国历史上最失败总统的道路上迈进。这种国进民退之落差，在医疗保健领域表现得尤为突出。接受《纽约时报》采访的美国民众普遍表示，自去年12月以来，他们的医疗支出大幅飙升。
According to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, nearly half of registered voters say the country is worse off than it was a year ago. Only 32 per cent believe things have improved. A majority — 51 per cent — say life has become less affordable, while 64 per cent believe Trump has mismanaged the cost of living. Among independent voters, dissatisfaction is particularly sharp, with more than four in ten now saying Trump is on track to be among the worst presidents in American history. Nowhere is this divergence more visible than in health care. Americans interviewed by Times say their healthcare cost soared since Dec.
这些数字揭示了美国国家力量与普通民众切身感受之间正在不断扩大的裂痕。特朗普在第二次竞选中大谈要恢复“生活可负担性”，降低食品价格、压低药品费用、重建家庭经济信心。然而执政一年后，通胀与生活成本压力依然是选民最头痛事宜，其受关切程度甚至超过了移民与外交政策。所谓国家强势的表演，最终并未转化为现实中的经济纾困。
These numbers matter because they expose a widening gap between national rhetoric and lived reality. Trump won his second term promising to restore affordability — cheaper groceries, lower drug prices, rising household confidence. One year in, inflation and cost-of-living pressures remain the dominant concern for voters, eclipsing even immigration and foreign policy. The spectacle of strength has not translated into economic relief.
这表明，“国进民退”正在现实中逐渐显露端倪：国家对外不断施展权威，而由此带来的风险与生活成本飙升却被层层转移，最终由个人和家庭买单。国家雄心沦为一场表演，社会保障却在不知不觉中持续退化。普通民众被要求为国家的强势喝彩，却不得不在生活成本上升、保障退缩的现实中艰难维系自身生计，逐渐失去立足的根基。
This is the logic of 国进民退 at work. The state projects power outward while risk and cost are downloaded onto individuals. National ambition becomes a performance, while social protection erodes quietly in the background. Citizens are asked to admire dominance even as their own footing weakens.
中国历史上多次经历国进民退。无论是在帝制时期、革命年代，还是以发展为导向的阶段，国家权力的强势推进，往往伴随着家庭层面的安全感丧失。国力不断扩张、自信心膨胀，而压力与代价则由普通家庭默默承受。但美国案例的特殊之处并不在于这种模式本身，而在于人们一直认为民主制度能够阻止这一局面的发生。
China has experienced this pattern repeatedly. Periods of assertive state power — whether imperial, revolutionary, or developmental — have often coincided with shrinking household security. The state grew louder and larger; families absorbed the strain. What makes the American case distinctive is not the pattern itself, but the expectation that democracy should prevent it.
而现如今，这种曾被视为理所当然的看法，如今正面临严峻考验。
That expectation is now being tested.
美国民众生活水平的持续下滑，并非源于时运不佳，也不是抽象的“全球性力量”所致，而是美国国内政治决策的直接后果。关税机制本身就会推高消费价格，贸易战实质上就是征收的隐形消费税，而医疗补贴的取消，则直接把成本转嫁到普通家庭身上。当政治运作是以展示野心和权利为出发点而非提高居民生活质量时，日常生活的可负担性就成为权利和野心的代价。
These deteriorating living standards are not the result of bad luck or abstract “global forces.” They are increasingly the product of U.S. political decisions. Tariffs raise consumer prices by design. Trade wars function as hidden consumption taxes. The abandonment of health-care subsidies shifts costs directly onto households. When politics is organized around displays of dominance rather than problem-solving, everyday affordability becomes collateral damage.
美国尚未完全陷入国进民退的状态，但其症状已然显现，其清晰可见、有数字为证，也极具政治风险。一个在国际舞台上以帝国姿态发声、却让本国普通家庭愈发感到贫困的国家，并非在展现自信，而是在暴露一种危险的断裂。这种断裂，绝非任何虚张声势的姿态所能掩盖。
America is not yet a full case of 国进民退. But the symptoms are visible, measurable, and politically volatile. A country that talks like an empire while its households feel poorer is not projecting confidence. It is revealing a dangerous disconnect — one that no amount of bravado can paper over.
