随着加拿大房产主，潜在买家和投资者的日益不安，房市崩盘的担忧日益加剧。这种担忧不是没有来由，加拿大的温哥华和多伦多的两大房地产市场，多家地产开发商出于日益严重的财务困境之中。在温哥华，Thind Properties 和 Align Properties 等大型公司即是如此，多个项目被搁置、遭法庭指定托管，或不得已以亏损价格出售。与此同时，多伦多的雄心勃勃的豪华摩天大楼“The One”的开发商 Mizrahi Developments 也因未能偿还逾16亿美元债务而被接管，进一步彰显该行业日益加深的财务困境。
Fears of a housing crash have intensified, unsettling homeowners, prospective buyers, and investors. The growing financial troubles of developers in Canada’s largest real estate markets—Vancouver and Toronto—have only deepened these anxieties. In Vancouver, major firms like Thind Properties and Align Properties have fallen into distress, with projects stalled, placed under court receivership, or sold at a loss. Meanwhile, in Toronto, “The One,” an ambitious luxury skyscraper, saw its developer, Mizrahi Developments, placed into receivership with over $1.6 billion in unpaid debt, exposing cracks in the sector’s financial stability.
近日来，美国对木材、钢铁和铝等关键建筑材料加征关税，建筑成本持续上升，进一步加剧了开发商的资金困境。随着材料成本飙升，开发商的利润空间不断遭挤压，融资渠道也日益受限，项目完工难度加大。2024年，随着开发商面临的财务压力不断加重，房地产行业遭到法庭指定接管的案例达到近十年来的最高水平，而债务方申请的房产开发商破产案件同比激增42.5%，凸显出地产开发商的财务危机。
The financial crisis among developers has been worsened by surging construction costs, largely driven by U.S. tariffs on key building materials like lumber, steel, and aluminum. As material costs rise, developers face shrinking profit margins and tightening financing conditions, making it harder to complete projects. In 2024, real estate sector receiverships reached their highest level in nearly a decade, while debtor-initiated real property insolvencies surged 42.5% year-over-year, signaling severe financial distress.
同时，大多伦多地区二月份房屋销售下降了28.5%。大多伦多和汉密尔顿地区的房地产投资交易下降19%，多伦多新公寓销量创下27年来最低水平，住宅用地销售下降34%，这些受借贷成本上升、经济动荡以及开发商财务困境的共同作用的市场低迷导致项目停滞和房产被迫出售，从而进一步加剧了对房地产市场前景的担忧。
At the same time, home sales in the Greater Toronto Area plunged 28.5% in February, further dampening market confidence. Investment sales in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area fell 19%, new condo sales in Toronto hit a 27-year low, and residential land sales dropped 34%, reflecting weaker investor sentiment and reduced liquidity. These struggles—driven by a combination of higher borrowing costs, economic uncertainty, and developer instability—have already led to stalled projects and distressed asset sales, raising concerns about broader market instability.
然而，尽管房市危机确实存在，但从市场的供需基本面来看，全面崩盘的可能性依然不大。
=However, while risks are real, a closer look at the market’s supply-demand fundamentals suggests a full-scale collapse remains unlikely.
与以往的房地产危机不同，加拿大仍然面临长期的供应短缺，限制了房价大幅下跌的可能性。住宅开工率长期低于需求，而在当前因财务压力导致房屋建筑进一步放缓的情况下，房屋短缺预计将持续。与此同时，加拿大强劲的移民政策持续支撑住房需求，防止市场出现全面停滞。
Unlike past housing crises, Canada still faces a persistent supply shortage that limits the potential for a sharp price decline. Housing starts have long lagged behind demand, and with construction now slowing further due to financial pressures, this shortfall is expected to continue. Meanwhile, Canada’s strong immigration policies sustain housing demand, preventing a total market freeze.
此外，如今的房产主比以往的任何危机时期具有更强的财务抗压能力。严格的房贷压力测试确保购房者能够承受更高的借贷成本，且许多房主已积累了可观的房屋净值。与2008年美国房地产崩盘不同，当时的危机源于不负责任的滥发贷款和次贷危机，而加拿大严格监管的银行体系有效降低了大规模房贷违约的风险。即使在最坏的情况下某些房主不得不出售房产，市场上也不太可能出现大量抛售的法拍房。
Additionally, today’s homeowners are far more financially resilient than in past crises. Stricter mortgage stress tests have ensured that buyers can absorb higher borrowing costs, while many homeowners have built substantial equity. Unlike the 2008 U.S. housing collapse, driven by reckless lending and subprime mortgages, Canada’s heavily regulated banking system has minimized the risk of widespread mortgage defaults. Even in a worst-case scenario where some homeowners are forced to sell, the likelihood of a flood of distressed properties remains low.
加拿大央行在2025年进一步降息将有助于缓解房贷压力并稳定市场需求。如果贸易紧张局势加剧，加拿大政府可能会采取针对性的经济支持措施，以降低大规模失业和被迫抛售房产的风险。在住房供应紧张、政策干预以及稳健的金融基本面的支撑下，房地产市场全面崩盘的可能性不大。
The Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts in 2025 could also provide relief, easing mortgage burdens and stabilizing demand. If trade tensions escalate, the government may step in with targeted economic support, reducing the risk of widespread job losses and forced selling. With tight housing supply, policy intervention, and strong financial fundamentals, a total market collapse remains improbable.
开发商的财务压力和住房成本的上升将继续影响市场情绪，但这更可能导致市场出现房价增速放缓，投机现象减少等的暂时调整，而非灾难性的崩盘。历史表明，只要房地产市场的核心基本面不崩溃，加拿大的房地产行业通常能够经受住经济动荡。尽管市场忧虑有其根基，但数据显示房地产市场正进入调整期，而并非面临一场毁灭性的崩盘。
The financial strain on developers and rising homeownership costs will continue to weigh on sentiment, but rather than triggering a catastrophic crash, these pressures are more likely to result in a correction—where price growth slows and speculative activity declines. History has shown that unless the core fundamentals of the housing market collapse, Canada’s real estate sector tends to weather economic turbulence. While concerns are understandable, the data points toward a period of adjustment, not a devastating collapse.
来源: 大中网/096.ca 南茜(Nancy Jin)
