马克·卡尼近日与阿尔伯塔省达成协议，承认在向低碳经济转型的过程中，能源开发仍将发挥重要作用。该协议引发了意料之中的反弹，批评者指责他背离了环保原则。然而，这种不满情绪所暴露的，恰恰是加拿大长期以来试图回避的气候政策背后所存在的经济现实的问题。
Mark Carney’s recent agreement with Alberta — acknowledging the continued role of energy development during the transition to a low-carbon economy — has triggered predictable backlash. Critics accuse him of retreating from environmental principles. Yet the discomfort surrounding that agreement reveals something deeper: Canada’s long reluctance to confront the economic realities of climate policy.
在过去十多年里，加拿大的气候行动似乎受道德观念驱使，而非一项实实在在的经济战略。环保雄心逐渐演变为国家价值的象征，碳税、排放上限以及“能源克制”被塑造成道德责任，而非服务于整体产业布局的政策工具。这种出发点或许真诚，但却日益脱离全球现实。加拿大为此付出了真实的经济代价。但在国内投资步伐放缓、能源项目受阻、生产力增长乏力的同时，其他国家却在积极争夺资本、重塑供应链、强化自身的产业竞争优势。而在这一过程中，全球排放总量依然持续上升，凸显出加拿大的自我约束并未改变全球排放的整体走向。
For much of the past decade, climate action in Canada has functioned less as an economic strategy than as a moral posture. Environmental ambition became a marker of national virtue, with carbon pricing, emissions caps, and restraint framed as ethical imperatives rather than tools within a broader industrial plan. That approach was sincere, but increasingly detached from global conditions. Canada bore real economic costs even as global emissions rose, driven largely by growth beyond its borders. Investment hesitated, energy projects stalled, and productivity weakened — while other countries moved decisively to secure capital, supply chains, and industrial advantage.
加拿大的温室气体排放量仅占全球约 1.5%。即使全国经济彻底停摆，对全球气候变化的影响也微乎其微。真正左右全球排放走势的，是中国与美国，中国排放量近全球的三分之一，而美国则约占 13% 至 14%。因此全球气候的未来，不取决于渥太华的道德姿态，而是北京和华盛顿的政策选择。
Canada produces roughly 1.5 per cent of global greenhouse-gas emissions. Even a complete domestic shutdown would barely register on the global climate scale. The real drivers of emissions lie elsewhere: China accounts for nearly a third of the total, and the United States another 13 to 14 per cent. Climate outcomes are shaped in Beijing and Washington far more than in Ottawa.
这并非为不作为开脱，而是要我们正视现实。
This does not excuse inaction. But it does demand realism.
没有经济实力支撑的气候行动注定难以持续。减排靠的不是道德意愿，而是由资本、产出能力以及政治承受力所驱动。
The uncomfortable truth is that climate action without economic strength is unsustainable. Decarbonization is not powered by intention or virtue; it is powered by capital, industrial capacity, and political durability.
这一点在中国身上体现得尤为明显。作为全球最大的温室气体排放国，中国同时也是新能源产业的最大建设者与输出国。这种并存并非矛盾，而是中国进行的一种战略措施。中国大规模发展清洁能源，并非出于道德自省或环保觉悟，而是基于经济发展和地缘政治竞争的考量，旨在强化国家整体实力。中国之所以能够在绿色能源领域迅速推进，正是因为其专制体制可以在社会与经济层面强行推进转型，而无需面对民主社会中难以回避的政治阻力。
Nowhere is this clearer than in China. It is simultaneously the world’s largest emitter and the world’s largest builder of renewable energy, electric vehicles, and battery supply chains. This is not environmental enlightenment; it is an industrial strategy. Clean energy is pursued because it strengthens economic and geopolitical power, not because it satisfies moral conscience. China can move faster not because it is morally superior, but because it can impose economic and social costs that democratic societies cannot politically sustain.
这种矛盾固然令人不安，却清楚表明，当今的气候行动并非姿态的象征，而是国家在规模、速度与执行能力上的真实体现。
That contradiction unsettles many, but it reveals something essential: climate progress today is driven by scale, speed, and state capacity — not symbolism.
正是基于这一点，加拿大总理马克·卡尼做出了不同的抉择：他与阿尔伯塔省展开合作的意愿，并承认在转型过程中能源产业仍具经济意义，明确表面他认识到脱离生产能力的气候雄心是空洞无效的。他并非是放弃环保目标，而是在全球竞争的现实框架下，将其推进。
This is where Mark Carney’s approach marks a shift. His willingness to engage Alberta and acknowledge the economic role of energy during the transition reflects a recognition that climate ambition without productive capacity is hollow. It does not abandon environmental goals; it situates them within the realities of global competition.
在特鲁多执政时期，经济克制常常被视为美德，而发展则被视为天生的罪过。批评人士称，在特鲁多任职的10年间，他一直在以环境保护为由而竭力限制加拿大的经济增长。
Under Trudeau, economic restraint was elevated to a moral ideal, while economic expansion was treated as something inherently suspect. Critics argue that his decade in power effectively constrained Canada’s economic growth, often under the banner of climate protection.
加拿大是一个资源极为丰富的国家。气候政策不应建立在经济自我克制之上，而应以生产能力和经济实力为基础。马克·卡尼的当选，反映出越来越多加拿大人希望摆脱空洞的气候口号，转而追求更务实的经济路径。选民的态度已经十分清晰：他们希望充分发挥加拿大的能源优势来推动发展，而不是将资源开发本身视为一种道德负担。
Canada is a resource-rich country, and climate policy should be built on productive capacity and economic strength — not restraint for its own sake. The rise of Mark Carney reflects a growing desire among voters to move beyond climate rhetoric toward economic realism. Canadians are signalling that they want an energy-based economy that leverages the country’s natural strengths, not one that treats resource development as a moral failure.
